Mortgage renewals and population uncertainty weigh on Bank of Canada, deliberations show

financialpost.com:

The Bank of Canada’s governing council has shifted its focus to downside risks to inflation and is concerned about the impact mortgage renewals and population growth uncertainty may have on the economy, according to deliberations from its most recent interest rate decision, released on Wednesday.

“Now, with both total and core inflation within the inflation control range, they agreed that they needed to put more emphasis on the symmetric nature of the inflation target,” reads the summary of deliberations prior to the central bank’s July 25 rate cut. “They also agreed to clearly communicate that they would be weighing the forces that could pull inflation below the target against those that could hold it above the target.”

The council had reached “clear consensus” that further cuts should happen, if inflation remains in line with projections, but the bank would continue to make decisions one meeting at a time.

The governing council remained confident that inflation will return to its two per cent target by 2025, with core inflation remaining below three per cent since January of this year and inflation generally becoming much less broad-based.

Members discussed risks to the bank’s outlook for the economy, with the council acknowledging that unemployment will most likely persist in the near term, as labour force growth continues to outpace the availability of jobs. Unemployment ticked up to 6.4 per cent in June, according to Statistics Canada.

“Recent data suggested positive but subdued GDP growth in the second quarter, largely driven by population growth,” reads the statement. “However, on a per-person basis, GDP appeared to have contracted. The economy clearly remained in excess supply, and there was room for economic