Narratives of India’s labour market vary but the reality doesn’t
The start of a new column is like the birth of a child. What you are going to name it, and expectations of how it will all turn out. This new column series (following in the tradition of Looking for Logic, Beyond Logic and No Proof Required) is named Rashomon Diaries.
Films and cricket were my earliest romances, and they have tested time. Kurosawa’s Rashomon was released in 1950, a year with considerably fewer computers and manifestly less fake commentary. Rashomon is a film more appropriate for the conflicted and polarized times of today.
Never have truths been more contested than now. Rashomon Diaries will attempt to shed light on, decipher and seek truth in this data-rich AI deep-fake world. In this article, we will look at politically sensitive data on the labour market, i.e.
unemployment and labour force participation. Candidate Bill Clinton aptly described his 1992 US presidential campaign as one revolving around the economy; “It’s the economy, stupid" is now a household phrase the world over. India is four times more populous and N times more varied than the US.
Not unexpectedly, there is so much variation in our economic data that almost anyone can come out with an observation that seems to ‘fit’ the narrative. One such narrative is that the unemployment level in India is high, and increasing. Data provider Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) recently released unemployment rates according to its much-cited Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS) module.
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