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On a macro level, the key theme that emerged from this year's Survey was the urgent need to de-regulate grassroot structural reforms. It argued that by reducing excessive regulatory burdens, the government could help businesses become more efficient, reduce costs, and unlock new growth opportunities. The Survey suggested a three-step process to address this issue: 1) identify areas for deregulation; 2) make comparisons with other states and countries; and 3) estimate the cost of regulation on individual enterprises. We note, this was a general point on the direction of strategy more widely, and not just directed at the central government.
At 6.3-6.8% y/y the Survey's real GDP growth estimate for FY25-26 is lower than Barclays 7.0% y/y forecast. This implies the finance minister may base her fiscal math for the budget on a nominal GDP growth assumption of 10% y/y (versus our forecast of 10.5%). In the medium term, the Survey noted that India would need to grow by approximately 8% annually, in real terms, over the next two decades to achieve the 'Viksit Bharat' goal by 2047. It added that such an outcome would be, by no means, an easy feat — especially in the context of heightened global risks and uncertain trade policy. As India looks inwards to drive the growth story- measures to strengthen domestic levers of growth, such as improving productivity across agriculture, industry and services, featured prominently in the Survey.
