NI protocol puzzle drags Sunak back to murky political maze of 2019

theguardian.com:

For a Brexit-minded MP, the parallels may seem striking: an electorally embattled prime minister trying to push through a controversial Northern Ireland deal in the face of Tory and Democratic Unionist party (DUP) scepticism. But one thing has changed: this is 2023, not 2019.

Theresa May’s struggles with Brexit, and her tumbling popularity with voters, led to her being forced out as prime minister by Conservative backbenchers. While no one would dispute that Rishi Sunak faces perhaps his toughest-ever political test, the stakes for him are, if not necessarily lower, then perhaps different.

The prime minister, who is widely expected to unveil his revised plan for Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trading arrangements this week, does so in a world in which many voters rarely think about relations with the EU, even less about red and green trade lanes or the scope of the European court of justice (ECJ).

When May was struggling with her doomed Brexit votes, a full two-thirds of British voters considered departure from the EU the most important issue facing the country. That figure is now between about 15% and 20%.

This does not necessarily make it any easier for Sunak to create a fudge sufficiently deep and thick to submerge the inherent Brexit contradiction of avoiding trade borders on the island of Ireland and in the Irish Sea.

It does, however, create a notably different political landscape for Sunak’s two main stumbling blocks to getting his deal finalised: the DUP and the European Research Group (ERG).

Mark Francois, who chairs the ERG, a collection of Brexit-minded Conservative backbenchers, was adamant on Sunday that a plan involving any ECJ role would be unacceptable. But others in the organisation have either laid low or