No fear of recession: BlackRock CIO hails US’ consumer-oriented economy

livemint.com:

economic downturn or recession. Rieder has stressed on the stability of a consumer-oriented and service-oriented economy, stating that a massive shock would be necessary to disrupt the current economic climate. He further stated that a recession is an overstated phenomenon in today's context.

“I just think a recession is grossly overstated as a phenomenon today without some massive shock to the system," Bloomberg quoted Rieder as saying. “When you have a consumer-oriented, service-oriented economy, it’s much more stable than people give credit to." Rieder believes that, once the inflation rate reaches around 3%, it becomes less concerning, and monetary policy does not need to be overly worried about it. He has expressed confidence in the downward trajectory of inflation, anticipating it to decrease over time.

Rieder also believes the unemployment rate is less likely to increase significantly. “I’m much more confident that inflation is going to come down than I am that the unemployment rate is going to come up. I don’t think the Fed needs to destroy the employment paradigm today," he said.

Regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, Rieder discussed the future hiking path on the What Goes Up podcast. He mentioned that, while goods inflation is approaching the target, services inflation might take more time to reach the desired level.  He expressed uncertainty about whether the target would be achieved next year but believed it could come close. Rieder also suggested that the Federal Reserve might continue with another rate hike, potentially in November, although the future hikes remained ambiguous.