Nouriel Roubini is less worried about economy & market than before but says a Trump win could change all that
Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics and International Business, Stern School of Business, New York University, says there is an element of frothiness in US stock markets. Part of it is driven by the optimism about artificial intelligence (AI) radically changing industry, economies, and the world. Some correction might occur, but it is unlikely to be massive, especially if the economy keeps on growing and the Fed starts cutting rates.
Roubini says in case of a Trump win, if he has a radical economic policy, there could be higher inflation, lower economic growth, and a significant correction with higher bond yields and lower stock prices. If he wisely chooses economic advisors who are more mainstream, and if he realises that the debt of the US is unsustainable and he has to do fiscal retrenchment, maybe those economic advisors can suggest a more moderate course of action.
The chances of a recession in the US look low now. The Fed is most likely to cut rates in another fortnight. How do you see the global market shaping up for the rest of 2024? Nouriel Roubini: I would argue that there is a separation between what is going to happen to the economies and what is going to happen to the markets, even if the two are related.
I do agree that the risk of a recession in the US is low right now. I think that the baseline will be one of a soft landing rather than a hard landing, a recession. There is still income generation. The Fed is going to start to cut rates now that the inflation is lower. The private
