Outlook 2024: Modi, Putin, Trump set to dominate global politics in 2024. Key elections to shape future of democracy
Narendra Modi seems certain to extend his rule to 2029; and Donald Trump could return to the White House despite charges of subverting U.S. democracy. For those who worry that authoritarian rulers are firmly in the ascendant over more liberal democrats, there is likely to be much to fret about in 2024.
In all, the governance of more than a quarter of the world's population will be at stake in elections next year, including Taiwan next month, Russia in March, India by May, and the United States in November. Britain is also likely to elect a new parliament by the end of 2024, though that vote could slip into January 2025. But no contest could have a bigger impact on the debate over the future of democracy than the U.S.
presidential election. Trump, who never conceded defeat in the 2020 U.S. election and falsely claimed the vote was rigged, has vowed retribution on opponents if returned to power, including the Department of Justice, the federal bureaucracy and President Joe Biden.
That has fanned fears that political hostilities in the United States could turn white hot and cause civil unrest. Trump has a slight lead in opinion polls even as he defends multiple criminal charges against him. Taiwan holds presidential and parliamentary elections on January 13, and the outcome could shape how Chinese President Xi Jinping pursues his goal of taking control of what Beijing considers "sacred" Chinese territory.
China detests the front-running presidential candidate, the Democratic Progressive Party's Lai Ching-te, believing him to be a separatist. U.S. military officers have said Xi has ordered the Chinese military to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027.
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