Phalodi Satta Bazar forecasts tense race in UP, INDIA Bloc expected to make strides
Lok Sabha elections, the Phalodi Satta Bazar in Rajasthan has updated its estimates for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Opposition's INDIA bloc. This grey market has become a popular gauge for people amid the absence of official opinion or exit polls.
Initially, the Phalodi Satta Bazar's estimates aligned closely with the BJP's claim of the NDA securing 400 seats out of 543. However, projections shifted as the election progressed. Prior to the polls starting on April 19, the market predicted over 300 seats for the BJP alone. This figure dropped to about 290 seats after the first two phases and rose again to nearly 300 after the fifth phase.
In its latest update, the Phalodi Satta Bazar anticipates the BJP securing fewer than 300 seats, while projecting the INDIA bloc to achieve 80-85 seats, its highest forecast yet. On May 13, the market predicted 40-42 seats for the Congress, considerably lower than its 2019 tally of 52 seats and even below its lowest-ever tally of 44 in 2014.
BJP's Prospects in Uttar Pradesh: A Setback?
The Phalodi Satta Bazar suggests that the BJP may face a significant setback in Uttar Pradesh, a state often considered a bellwether. It estimates the BJP could win 55-65 seats, a decline from its 2019 tally of 62 seats and 71 seats in 2014.
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