Posthaste: Canada is in the grips of a 'Me-cession' — and it's especially bad in Alberta

financialpost.com:

Canada just went through one of the most punishing bouts ofinterest rate hikes in history, and when you think about it, it’s quite remarkable we haven’t fallen into recession — at least not yet, anyway.

That doesn’t mean we got off scot-free and one economist recently coined a phrase for the particular malaise Canadians are suffering — “Me-cession.”

“Collectively, we are spending more and pushing economic activity higher but, individually, we are restricting purchases and behaving as if we are in a recession,” said Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, in his report.

Why that is happening has been well-documented — record population growth. Because there are more of us spending and consuming, the country’s gross domestic product continues to grow, even while GDP per person declines.

Take away that population boom and Canada’s economy would have slipped into recession last year, shrinking 1.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2023 and 1.5 per cent in the fourth, St-Arnaud’s team estimates. (A recession is technically two straight quarters of contraction.)

The ‘Me-cession’ is happening across the country but no where is it more acute than in Alberta, said St-Arnaud.

The province that has experienced the highest population growth in the country, has also suffered the biggest decline in spending per person.

St-Arnaud says this is because Alberta’s wages and income have failed to keep up with the rest of Canada in recent years and Albertans are among the most indebted households.

“However, stronger population growth in Alberta compared to the rest of the country and the tailwind from high oil prices means that economic growth in the province outperforms the rest of the country,” said St-Arnaud.

So while it’s