S&P 500: 3 Reasons to Remain Optimistic About Q4 in Spite of Current Challenges
We were well aware of September's historical reputation as a challenging month for the stock market. In fact, when we examine data dating back to 1950 for the S&P 500, it emerges as the most unfavorable month of the year.
Moreover, just last week, I pointed out that the period spanning from September 20th to the 30th, inclusive, typically exerts a negative impact on the index. To be precise, it tends to experience a decline of approximately -1.92%. As of the market's close on the 28th, the S&P 500 has dipped even further, registering a decrease of -3.27%.
However, now we are going into an interesting period, as the next three months tend to be historically quite strong. While the current macroeconomic setup keeps flashing warning signs, here are three reasons to remains optimistic in the months ahead:
Nevertheless, it's crucial to remember, as I often emphasize, that all this information is rooted in historical data. While undeniably intriguing, it remains essential to bear in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Still, in many cases, as we well know, history rhymes (Mark Twain).
For the time being, the focus is on the following dates as we await further clues from Central Banks on the pace of rate hikes:
October 26: ECB decides on interest rates.
November 1: the Fed decides on interest rates. (Potentially the last one of the cycle)
December 13: the Fed decides on interest rates.
Dec. 14: ECB decides on interest rates.
That said, let's assess two reasons that could dampen market sentiment in spite of the positive aforementioned historical trends: the rise in oil prices and the global Forex market.
In recent months, Saudi Arabia and Russia have managed to amass billions of dollars in oil revenues,
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