So you think you correctly predicted Trump’s win? Think again
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Of course you knew that Donald Trump was going to win this election. And that the Indian stock market was due for a substantial correction.
It was so obvious, wasn’t it? And remember 2020, when central banks and governments pumped liquidity into the system globally? Some even gave actual cash to citizens. Given that liquidity and low interest rates drive markets, anyone could have foreseen that there would be a massive bull run in equities. What if I tell you that if you had an actual record of what you were saying beforehand, it would often be at total variance with what actually happened and what you remember now as your ‘predictions’? Not that you are deliberately lying.
You may even pass a lie-detector test as you truly believe what you’re saying. It is merely your brain tricking you. If you are like every other human being on this earth, it is very likely that your view of what you thought would happen is distorted by your knowledge of what actually happened.
In short, you will almost always think that you knew the outcome of an event beforehand. This is the ‘I knew it all along’ phenomenon—known as hindsight bias. There are literally dozens of research studies carried out across domains, including legal decisions, medical diagnoses, consumer satisfaction, sporting events and election outcomes, proving this bias is pretty much all pervasive.
“In each case, people armed with advance knowledge of an outcome overestimate the likelihood of that particular outcome," say Daniel M. Bernstein , Cristina Atance , Andrew N. Meltzoff and Geoffrey R.
Read more on livemint.com
