TD Bank, BMO in spotlight as Canada's big banks get set to report earnings

financialpost.com:

From Toronto-Dominion Bank’s growth restrictions to Donald Trump’s election in the United States to the drastic reduction in immigration numbers in Canada, a lot has changed since the Big Six banks’ last quarterly earnings release in August.

How these issues may impact Canada’s banking sector and the economy overall is something investors are likely to focus on as the country’s top lenders get set to release results next week for the fourth quarter, which ended Oct. 31.

After getting fined about US$3.1 billion in October by U.S. authorities and being ordered to cap the expansion of its retail banking business there for failing to monitor money laundering activities, investors are wondering whether TD can provide a clear future plan.

Following the charges, TD announced several steps to mitigate the impacts of the curbs, but described 2025 as a “transition” year. This essentially translates to “don’t expect any growth” for the year, according to National Bank of Canada analyst Gabriel Dechaine.

There’s also a lot of uncertainty regarding TD’s expected performance in 2026. Analysts expect the bank’s earnings per share to rise anywhere from four per cent to 14 per cent, which is a “wide range,” Dechaine said.

“There is some speculation that TD could provide 2026 guidance, which would be helpful for investors with a longer-term view to more reliably value the stock,” he said in a note on Nov. 19. “If TD delivers a message that it expects its ‘new normal’ earnings per share growth to be in the five per cent to six per cent range, we believe the market reaction would be positive.”

Any kind of “constructive forward guidance would be a big plus” for TD, Bank of Nova Scotia analyst Meny Grauman said in a note on Nov. 25, since the