The ghost that haunts the global oil markets

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Mint columns that I debunk the super cycle theory in oil and gas. Part of the reason is I have seen the sale of “ghost ships" grow exponentially in the past 10 years. Most of the spike came after the Covid lockdowns in 2020.

The Ukraine war escalated the process. Russia alone is estimated to own up to 600 ghost ships. And whispers among veteran oil traders seem to suggest at least one-third (if not higher!) of all Russian oil sales are of ghost inventories ferried by ghost tankers.

So, while my analyst friends were throwing around fancy price targets of as much as $350 a barrel for crude oil after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I was vociferously advocating a fall in oil prices! My reason was simple – boots on the ground and eyes in the skies. Activity in the ghost inventory market simply exploded. I had seen it in 2012.

Wars are expensive adventures and stakeholders need an almost unlimited supply of money to keep them going. Russia demonstrated that by stepping up ghost trade to finance the Ukrainian war. Activity only spiked after the 7 October 2023 war in Gaza broke out.

If you were to listen to armchair and fireside experts, oil prices should have gone to the moon. If you talked to a real-world trader, he would be shorting these markets. Where are gold prices headed? A trader with 38 years of experience answers Tata Motors rallied 782% the past 5 years.

Is the stock still worth buying? Buy gold for cheaper with this zaveri bazaar hack I saw a 2007 Hollywood film “Shooter" that stuck on in my thoughts. The dialogue of the antagonist played by Ned Beatty is something I make all my oil trading friends hear on YouTube: “There are no Shias and Sunnis, Christians and Moslems, righteous or villains. There are no