Every month, Mint’s Plain Facts section brings out an update on key global economic data to thread together the biggest developments in the world that are worth paying attention to. The accompanying analysis and charts attempt to explain how each story is creating ripples on the global stage, where it is headed in the coming weeks, and whether it can impact India. This time, we explain incoming central bank decisions in various countries, and the deflation in China that’s raising questions about its growth prospects.
Nearly four years ago, central banks around the world cut policy interest rates to all-time lows and kept them there for months. Then they raised them back quickly to tame the resulting inflation. Now the discourse has moved to holding policy rates in a balancing act.
In December, central banks of the US, the UK, European Union, India and Japan will announce their monetary policy decisions. All these central banks, barring Japan’s, have already hiked interest rates sharply from the pandemic lows, and with the inflation not as intense as it was a year ago, they are likely to hold rates once again, in what has been described as higher-for-longer interest rate regime. That’s because inflation, even though softening, is yet to settle down at the targets set by central banks.
Japan, on the other hand, has kept its ‘super’ accommodative stance so far but could make the first move early next year as inflation is continuously printing above its target. Growth slowdown in China has been a cause of worry for the world, and with the country now also experiencing deflation, has added more to it. China experienced deflation in October, the second such instance in four months, which has led to concerns that the world’s
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