What will shape the maths behind Budget 2024?

livemint.com:

₹17.9 trillion) will now amount to 6% of GDP. But there, the second big number—tax collections—comes to the government’s relief. For the third straight year, the mop-up has been robust, and in the first eight months of 2023-24, has risen way faster than what the government had projected.

These gains will cushion the Budget against the effects of slower growth. Economists expect the fiscal deficit target to be cut to 5.2-5.3% of GDP in 2024-25. But that won’t be enough if the government plans to bring it down to 4.5% by 2025-26.

For that, it may have to normalize its ambitious capital expenditure goals going forward. Interim budgets have been non-events for years as the Election Commission of India bars the outgoing government from proposing any major policies ahead of a national election. However, in the run-up to crucial assembly polls last year, the government had already made a few announcements that may be considered as bets for the general election.

First, the extension of the free foodgrain programme for the next five years, and second, the increase in subsidy for liquefied petroleum gas cylinders. As a result, the government approached Parliament to approve a top-up of ₹5,600 crore for food subsidy and ₹9,200 crore for gas subsidy. The additional spending towards gas subsidy is likely to be matched with savings or higher receipts by ministries and is unlikely to upset the Budget maths this year.