After a 4-series marathon run, can Nifty50 keep up the tempo in August F&O series, too?

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Nifty50 clocking about 3.6% gains and setting new milestones. Thanks to the steady inflows from foreign institutional investors, high networth individuals, and retail investors, the Nifty50 has clocked gains for 4 consecutive derivative series. The rollover of positions to the August derivative series of Nifty50 was higher than the three-month average, and the open interest was also higher than that at the beginning of the July series.

The high rollover cost at 65-66 basis points also suggests aggressive rollover of long positions to the August series. However, FIIs have reduced their net long positions compared to the last series, which suggests some caution. In July, FIIs pumped in over $3 billion into Indian equities, but this was half of the inflows seen in June.

After a relentless run for four months, data indicators do suggest that bulls may feel the fatigue, and this may result in range-bound trade in the Nifty 50 in the August series. Given that FIIs have been the primary drivers for the market up move, their strategy will be crucial for the momentum to sustain and take Nifty50 to new highs. “As we move into the August series, we might witness more sector rotation, and the Nifty index could trade in a broad range of 19,000 to 19,900, with breakdown or breakout to be led only by strong directional flows by FIIs,” said Abhilash Pagaria of Nuvama Institutional Equities.

In trade on Friday, the Nifty 50 was trading 0.3% down at 19608.30 points. The August futures contract was 0.5% down at 19,719.80 points.Historical Evidence Sriram Velayudhan of IIFL Securities is pinning hopes on a fifth straight series gain for Nifty 50 in August, provided there are no major bouts of volatility. In the last 33 years, there have