Backed into corner, Hezbollah must make a fateful decision

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Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Hezbollah is dealing with some disagreement among its ranks over how to respond to a series of devastating attacks on the Lebanese militant group, according to people familiar with the group’s deliberations. With no good options available, the group faces one of the most consequential decisions in its four-decade history.

Hezbollah, the world’s most heavily armed nonstate paramilitary group, fired its first missile at the commercial capital of Tel Aviv on Wednesday, its boldest response yet to a dramatic series of strikes by Israel. It must now choose whether to unleash more of its advanced weapons, striking deeper into Israel and potentially triggering a full-scale war, or hold back and risk diminishing its reputation as one of the fiercest fighting forces in the Middle East. “This is the single most crucial moment for Hezbollah since it was created," said Rym Momtaz, a security analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace with expertise in Hezbollah.

“Hezbollah has no good options." A full-scale war, such as the one Hezbollah fought with Israel in 2006, would likely be devastating for Lebanon, exacerbating its economic crisis and eroding Hezbollah’s support among the population. Still, if the group doesn’t respond in kind to the recent attacks, it could undermine the deterrence that Hezbollah spent decades building against Israel, largely with military and financial help from Iran. Israel says the recent attacks were aimed at stopping Hezbollah strikes that have continued for nearly a year and allowing Israelis to return to parts of northern Israel.