Hezbollah misjudged Israel’s weakness and Iran’s might
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. DUBAI—Weeks after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, the leader of Lebanese militant group Hezbollah made a thunderous speech to explain why his men are joining the fight against the “Zionist enemy." Israel was “shaking and trembling" in fear, “weaker than a spider’s web," Hassan Nasrallah said.
Unlike previous conflicts with the Jewish state, this war “was historic and decisive," and all Iranian-backed resistance movements—from Lebanon to Syria to Iraq and Yemen—were duty-bound to participate, he said. Today, Nasrallah is dead, as is much of Hezbollah’s senior leadership. The remainder of the organization has been decimated by a succession of blows that showcased a stunning penetration by Israeli intelligence.
In retrospect, this was the outcome of Nasrallah’s making two strategic mistakes: grossly underestimating Israel, his foe, and overestimating the abilities of his patron, Iran, and its network of allied militant groups in the region. Hezbollah possesses a vast arsenal of missiles and rockets, including precision-guided ballistic missiles. This was meant to deter an Israeli escalation.
Its weapons haven’t inflicted any significant damage on Israel so far. More than 1,000 people have been killed in Lebanon since Sept. 16, according to the Lebanese health ministry, during Israel’s campaign to end Hezbollah’s strikes that have forced tens of thousands from their homes in northern Israel.
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