BJP has odds stacked against it in Punjab. What gives it hope?
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been a bit player in Punjab politics, playing a second fiddle to its senior alliance partner the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) since 1996. But this time, it decided to come out of SAD's shadow and fight the Lok Sabha elections on its own. The SAD had walked out of the alliance over the farm bills but both were considering coming together again which did not happen.
While testing the waters in Punjab on its own, where it ranks fourth after the AAP, the Congress and the SAD, the BJP finds odds are stacked against it. It faces backlash from protesting farmers in a state where traditionally the BJP has not had any core voters of its own. In the absence of its alliance partner, the SAD, it might not have much traction in rural areas. Yet, the state BJP leaders are quite upbeat. They are hopeful of winning at least four seats of the total 13, double the number they have been winning in the state in the past few Lok Sabha elections.
What explains their optimism when the party doesn't have any voter base of its own and the dominant farmer community has turned against it?
The break with the Akalis
The biggest challenge for the BJP this time is the break with the SAD. The BJP's ambitious aim for its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to cross the 400-seat mark had forced it to talk to its separated ally. The SAD too saw benefit in allying with the BJP since its own voter base, largely in the rural Sikh population, has been eroded by the AAP.
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