CMHC forecasts slowdown in housing starts through 2027
Housing starts across Canada kicked off the year strong, but lower immigration levels and evolving U.S. trade policies are clouding the country’s economic outlook, which has had a cascading effect on the housing market, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
The total monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate for housing starts across Canada increased three per cent in January, while actual housing starts were up seven per cent year-over-year in areas with a population of at least 10,000, the CMHC said in its 2025 housing market outlook.
“While these increases show early signs of progress to begin the year, foreign trade risks add significant uncertainty for housing construction going forward,” CMHC deputy chief economist Tania Bourassa-Ochoa said in a release.
While the CMHC forecasts “modest” economic growth in 2025 with the outlook improving into 2026-’27, it’s a mixed bag for the housing market.
“Slower population growth and economic challenges will limit housing activity,” the report said. “On the other hand, some households will see improved buying power, boosting housing activity in the short term.”
The CMHC forecasts that housing starts will slow down starting this year through 2027 — but will remain above the 10-year average — mainly due to a domino effect in the condominium market.
“With low investor interest and more young families looking for family-friendly homes, developers will find it harder to sell enough units to fund new projects,” the report said. “The increase in unsold units will likely reduce new project launches, leading to a decline in new condominium apartment construction.”
In condo-centric Ontario, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area, Hamilton, Kitchener, Cambridge
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