Enter, Peacetime General: New RBI guv comes in with enough room to build an institution and leave a legacy
RBI since Chakravarthy Rangarajan had to firefight from day one. Sanjay Malhotra may be an exception. As Malhotra walks into Mint Street as the 26th guv, he doesn't face challenges like his predecessors did — a currency crisis, or a ruptured relationship with GoI. Instead, what lies before him are a stable economy that requires some fuel, a fit banking system that's looking to fly, and a financial market that's impatient to grow.
After deft handling of the Covid crisis, surge in money supply led to spiralling of prices, forcing it to raise interest rates. But the dual mandate of growth and inflation needs MPC to consider lowering policy rates, as there are signs of inflation cooling and also because of the negative impact of high real interest rates.
Malhotra has the ground laid out by the departing Shaktikanta Das, who has signalled that the next move could be a cut in rates. That the two external members of MPC have already voted for a reduction could make his job easier. While monetary policy and interest rates may keep RBI in limelight, its full-service nature — by which it regulates banking, NBFCs and currency markets — has even broader implications for the economy.
The Indian banking industry was on the throes of collapse in 2015 when the debt bubble burst, and the regulator ordered a complete asset-quality review. The picture wasn't pretty with bad loans shooting past more than 10%, making some lenders technically bankrupt. Along with it, collapse of institutions such as IL&FS and the rescue of Yes Bank
