Expect flattish or slightly declining Q1 for Reliance: Harshvardhan Dole

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Harshvardhan Dole, VP, IIFL Securities, says “the second half should be more promising as the gas production improves and hopefully the O2C business should be much stronger than what we are seeing in the first half. On a broader basis, the call is what possible announcement may come through in the AGM, which probably is say month out.

So, all eyes are on the AGM and that will be the key trigger for the stock's outperformance from here on.”You track Reliance very closely. We saw quite a bit of up move on Monday. Today, that stock is trending higher. Is that something in the results that people are expecting? Is that the entire value unlocking which is at play? What is your call on Reliance?We are forecasting YoY flattish or slightly declining first quarter, that is mainly because last year O2C base was significantly stronger but that has been offset by strength in the B2C businesses and to that extent the broader number should be okayish if not exciting.

But the second half should be more promising as the gas production improves and hopefully the O2C business should be much stronger than what we are seeing in the first half. On a broader basis, the call is what possible announcement may come through in the AGM, which probably is say month out.

So, all eyes are on the AGM and that will be the key trigger for the stock's outperformance from here on.Net-net, what is the target that you have in mind for Reliance and what is your view of the entire unlocking that has played out over the last couple of days with the demerger of the financial services, record date announcement and Reliance Retail valuation?We value Reliance Retail closer to about $105 to $110 billion on an aggregate basis. The valuation that seems to be in the