February jobs report expected to show hiring slowed last month
Mainstay Capital Management CEO David Kudla argues the Fed will be 'very cautious' and there won't be rate cuts for some time.
All eyes will be on the February jobs report when it is released Friday morning, as investors look for clues about the labor market's health in the face of higher interest rates and still-high inflation.
The Labor Department's high-stakes February payroll report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is projected to show that hiring increased by 200,000 last month and that the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, according to a median estimate by Refinitiv economists.
That would mark a decrease from the blockbuster 353,000 gain in January and the average monthly gain of 255,000 recorded in 2023.
«Payroll gains far exceeded forecasts in January, due in part to annual revisions, but are poised to return to a more sustainable pace in February,» said Aaron Terrazas, Glassdoor chief economist.
THE NUMBER OF HIGH-PAYING JOBS IS DWINDLING
A job seeker attends a Veteran Employment and Resource Fair in Long Beach, California, on Jan. 9, 2024. (Photographer: Eric Thayer/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
The Federal Reserve is closely watching the report for evidence that the labor market is finally softening after months of surprisingly solid job gains as policymakers try to ensure that progress on inflation does not stall. Officials have suggested that fast wage growth – the product of a strong labor market – was a contributing factor to the inflation crisis that ravaged millions of Americans' pocketbooks over the past few years.
Slower job growth and further moderation in wage gains could be a welcome sign for the U.S. central bank, which has signaled that it plans to cut interest rates sometime this year
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