From too wet to bone dry: Indonesian coffee crop faces El Nino jolt
El Nino's dry weather threatens to further dent coffee production in Indonesia, the world's fourth largest grower, after excessive rains dragged down output to its lowest in more than a decade, driving global prices to all-time highs. Lower coffee output in Indonesia, which mainly produces robusta beans — having a bolder and more bitter flavour than the arabica variety — could trigger more gains in prices which have climbed more than 40% in 2023 and hit a record high in June.
«There are forecasts of El Nino weather leading to dryness towards the end of the year and early next year in Indonesia,» said Carlos Mera, head of agri commodities markets research at Rabobank. «If there is dryness, Indonesia's coffee production could fall further in 2024/25.» Indonesia's weather agency (BMKG) said the El Nino weather phenomenon, which typically brings prolonged hot and dry weather to the tropical country, is already affecting more than two-thirds of the nation, including Java and parts of Sumatra, two key coffee producing areas.
The dry conditions contrast with high rainfall in the Southeast Asian nation between 2000 and 2022 due to La Nina, while heavy rains have also been experienced during the first five months of this year. In 2023/24, Indonesia's coffee output is forecast at 9.7 million 60-kg bags, down from 11.85 million bags a year ago and lowest since 2011/12, according to U.S.
Department of Agriculture data.RAIN RELIANCE Plantations in Sumatra and Java are likely to bear the brunt of any drought, with meteorologists forecasting El Nino to intensify towards the end of 2023 and early next year, a crucial time for flowering and fruit formation. Most Indonesian coffee plantations are rain-fed.
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