Manish Singh, CIO, Crossbridge Capital, says “I remain positive on China. I remain positive on emerging markets. What is going to happen is the pie is going to get bigger. We are going to have big global growth as the power of the US, power of the western world reduces and that means the cost of capital goes down in emerging markets. We have more growth and there will be rapid and bigger global growth. ”
Let me begin with the Q2 US economic data. It is fair to say that even though it is slightly below estimates, 2.1% is telling us that things are back on track. There is definitely a recovery in the US economy and recession fears are receding. Is that a fair interpretation of the numbers?
Anything at 2% and over is something that everyone should be very pleased about and it just keeps the recession fears at bay.
It does not mean that the economic conditions are not deteriorating, but we are not seeing big signs which will concern people. There are several things happening and one thing we have to bear in mind is that the real wage growth in the US is positive.
The wage is growing at 4.5% or 6%. Inflation is at 3 or sub-3.
Real wage growth is positive. That is adding to the economy. I maintain that interest rates are extremely high and this is going to hurt the economy, but the only reason it is not hurting is because a lot of these loans and financing costs are slightly longer term.
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