India’s economy as third largest: Just a guarantee of the inevitable

livemint.com:

Recently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that India will be among the top three economies in the world during his third term, presuming the Bharatiya Janata Party wins next year’s Lok Sabha elections. “On the basis of [our] track record, in the third term of our government, India will become the world’s third-largest economy. This is Modi’s guarantee," the Prime Minister said while speaking at an event in New Delhi.

What he did not mention is that his ‘guarantee’ is self-fulfilling in that no matter who is PM after elections, India will become the third largest economy in a few years. Population and economic growth will ensure a larger economy. With more people than in any other nation, it would be unfathomable to have a shrinking economy, as that would mean mass penury.

A day after the Prime Minister spoke, the State Bank of India issued estimates indicating that the Indian economy would become the third largest in 2027. This must all seem like good news for Modi and the ruling BJP’s prospects in the upcoming general elections. Over the last several years, BJP leaders from the Prime Minister down have talked up India’s gross domestic product (GDP), sometimes setting a goal of a “$5 trillion economy" and at other times showcasing India’s improving GDP ranking globally as a way of inspiring nationalistic fervour among citizens.

This has become an obsession that has little to do with the well-being of most Indians, however, and may in fact distract from opportunities to meaningfully improve the lives of ordinary citizens. While economists view GDP as an overarching indicator of an economy’s health, they focus more on economic growth or levels of per capita income than on the absolute value of GDP. If GDP rankings were a