Indonesia will need to walk a fine line once Trump is back in the White House
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Indonesia, for decades a natural partner to the US because of similar defence priorities and democratic values, has in recent years drifted more toward China, drawn by its economic support. A potentially more insular American foreign policy under President-elect Donald Trump is pushing Jakarta even closer to Beijing.
The world’s fourth most-populous country would be wise to keep its options open. Newly elected President Prabowo Subianto made a strategic blunder during his first foreign visit since his inauguration in October. He and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke about shared ambitions and mutual trust—a signal to Washington on this growing partnership.
Beijing wants to position itself as a natural ally of countries in the Global South, competing with US influence with its cheque-book. Southeast Asian nations like Indonesia have played it smart, balancing the two to ensure local interests remain paramount. On his trip, though, Prabowo broke with decades of careful foreign policy by reportedly agreeing to joint development with China in the South China Sea, potentially legitimizing Beijing’s claims to almost all of the contested waterway.
This sets a dangerous precedent. Chinese coastguard ships have entered waters disputed by other nations—most recently Indonesia—to show who’s in charge. In the past, Jakarta has responded by expanding its military bases to better control who traverses its seas.
The South China Sea is home to huge reserves of oil, gas and fish. About 60% of maritime trade passes through the Indo-Pacific and Indonesia strategically straddles the gateway between the two oceans. Freedom of navigation is essential to regional security.
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