Japanese love the new prime minister. Markets don’t.
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Japan has cast off lost decades of deflation to join the rest of the developed world in modest inflation, currently running near 3%. That has been good for stocks, as companies recovered long-lost pricing power and banks could earn net interest margin. Ordinary Japanese worry about their incomes keeping pace.
“Real disposable income has hovered around zero in recent years," says Shigeto Nagai, head of Japan economics at Oxford Economics. That angst was a big reason why 64-year-old Sanae Takaichi surged from dark horse to Japan’s first female prime minister in October. She has flipped the script with strategically targeted spending hikes and tax cuts, plus some tough talk toward China.
Her approval ratings are near 70% while investors turn glum. The iShares MSCI Japan exchange-traded fund is flat since Takaichi became Liberal Democratic Party leader on Oct. 4.
It soared more than 20% over the previous nine months. “The Japanese market looks fully valued," says Alex Wolf, global head of macro and fixed-income strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
“We are neutral." The fixed-income front is more alarming. Yields on 10-year Japanese sovereign bonds have climbed nearly half a percentage point to 2.12% on Takaichi’s watch. The yen, which should in theory rise with higher bond returns, has lost 6% against the dollar.
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