Leading in all national polls, is Kamala Harris becoming complacent? It's not easy to win the White House that easily
Her standing in national polls has improved as well. According to a Morning Consult Poll released recently, Harris holds a six-point lead over Trump, which is her highest margin yet. Despite these positive indicators, there are reasons why Harris’s team should not become too comfortable.
National polls vs. electoral college
National polls offer a broad overview of the election's potential outcomes, but they do not convey the whole story. Experts caution that winning the electoral college does not often follow from a narrow national lead. Historical instances, such as the 2016 campaign of Hillary Clinton, demonstrate that winning the popular vote does not guarantee an electoral college victory.
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Harris has a 70% probability of winning the popular vote but only a 50% chance of earning the 270 electoral college votes required to win, according to CNN statistics expert Harry Enten. Important battleground states continue to see close races. Trump is up in Georgia and Arizona, but Harris is ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan. Pennsylvania is still quite competitive despite only 19 electoral college votes.
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