Lichtman’s prediction system evaluates 13 key factors, such as party standing in Congress, economic conditions, scandals, social unrest, and candidate charisma. He explains that these indicators have historically provided reliable forecasts. Currently, he sees eight of the keys yielding “true” answers, supporting the notion of a Harris victory.
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Lichtman acknowledges experiencing unprecedented backlash for his prediction this election cycle. He reports receiving vulgar and threatening messages, claiming that the safety of his family has been compromised. This level of hostility has been unlike anything he has faced in previous elections.
While Lichtman remains optimistic about his prediction, he notes that foreign policy could impact the outcome. He mentions the Biden administration’s involvement in the ongoing Gaza conflict, which could shift key factors in his analysis. However, he believes even a complete flip of foreign policy keys would not be sufficient for Trump to reclaim the presidency, given the current political landscape.
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