Lichtman uses his established «13 Keys to the White House» system to evaluate the political landscape. This year, he believes at least eight of the keys favor Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump. His system, which categorizes various aspects of the electoral environment into true or false statements, indicates that when six or more keys are false, the challenging party is expected to win. Lichtman maintains that the candidates' close polling in swing states does not deter his confidence in Harris's potential victory.
While Lichtman has faith in his predictive model, he also reflects on his concerns about democracy itself. He noted that the U.S. political system is relatively young in the grand scheme of history, and both campaigns have painted their opponents as threats to democratic values. Recent polling reveals that over 70% of voters across party lines perceive threats to democracy as critical issues.
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Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished professor at American University and holds a Ph.D. in modern American history from Harvard. He created the prediction system based on historical patterns, which has successfully forecasted every presidential election since 1984, barring the narrow 2000 race between George W. Bush and Al Gore.
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