Nostradamus Prediction Fail: Here’s what went wrong with Allan Lichtman’s Kamala Harris win forecast
Allan Lichtman, the political historian often called the “Nostradamus of elections,” found himself eating humble pie in front of a live audience. The 77-year-old professor, who has gained fame for accurately predicting U.S. presidential elections, was caught off-guard when his prediction for the 2024 race turned out to be way off.
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The “Keys to the White House” that led to a miss
During a live-streamed session with his son Sam, Lichtman watched in disbelief as the results rolled in, showing Donald Trump heading for a landslide win. “I don’t get it,” Lichtman repeatedly muttered, clearly struggling to process the shocking data. As the night went on, his frustration grew, and he jokingly said, “Good thing I have nothing to do tomorrow. And I’m not doing any interviews.”
Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” system has been his go-to method for predicting election outcomes since 1984. His method is based on a series of 13 factors (or “keys”) that can tilt the balance in favour of a candidate. For the 2024 election, Lichtman was convinced Kamala Harris had the upper hand, ticking off eight of the keys in her favour. Meanwhile, Donald Trump only scored three.
He’s been on point with his predictions most of the time, with just two misses: the 2000 election and now, 2024.
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