Santosh Rao, Partner, Head of Research, Manhattan Venture Partners, says “the world has realised that being China-centric is not really good. It is not a good practice, not a good strategy. So they are diversifying out of China. Even if China was not slowing down, just for geopolitical tensions and all that, people have realised that China is not the place to rely on in the long run. India is going to be the biggest beneficiary of that coming out. Investments are going to flow out of China. And that is a huge thing that is playing out in the markets.”
Are you surprised the way the entire global narrative has changed? We are talking about rate cuts this year?
Santosh Rao: Yes. I think a lot depends on two or three things that are going to determine the US market. Of course, the disparity between what the market is expecting and what the Fed will do. Originally five or six cuts were priced into the market, and that was the enthusiasm coming into the year. But I think now after all the Fed governors have come out and said it clearly, and also seeing the CPI data, the last CPI data that came out the Fed is not going to do five or six cuts. It is probably going to do two, at best three if inflation comes down fast.
I think the market is adjusting to that. Overall, that is going to be a key determinant. If the market can figure out where the Fed is leaning, we will get to it. But there is no way they are going to start cutting now, as some of them expected. It is going to be