T-shirt weather in December is a sign of what winter has in store

financialpost.com:

It’s the cusp of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, but in many places from North America to Japan, it feels more like spring — and forecasters say that’s a sign of what to expect over the next couple of months, until a late-season cold snap arrives.

In New York City this weekend, temperatures will soar above 60F (16C). Warmer-than-average weather will also blanket London and Tokyo. And longer-term outlooks show mild conditions lingering for much of North America, Europe and East Asia into January.

It all comes down to climate change and El Niño, a warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that can trigger weather disasters and roil commodities markets. Even before this year ends, the World Meteorological Organization has declared it the hottest on record. That heat is expected to linger in the coming months, curbing energy prices but amplifying the drought that has damaged crops, sparked wildfires and shrivelled major trade routes.

My prediction for this winter: weirdness and plenty of surprises

“Due to this year’s El Niño being quite strong, its influence should be apparent,” commercial forecasting firm NatGasWeather said in a note to clients this week. With temperatures worldwide smashing records earlier in 2023, “this exceptionally warm global background state is likely to keep much of the Northern Hemisphere warmer than normal this winter.”

Already, prices for natural gas and heating oil are tumbling on speculation that bone-chilling cold will prove rare in the coming months. The premium for U.S. gas delivered in March over April futures — a spread known as the widowmaker for its volatility — is near an all-time low for the 2024 contracts, signalling that traders expect ample supplies at the end of winter.

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