The 2024 Republican choice
The polls show Americans want to move on from President Biden, and Republicans have a choice to make about the alternative to offer voters in November. Will it be the prospect of a second Donald Trump term, with its inevitable turmoil and polarization, or will the GOP look forward to forge a new conservative governing coalition? That’s the essence of the choice facing Republicans as New Hampshire holds its primary on Tuesday. The Trump campaign, the press and the Biden Democrats say the race is over.
Mr. Biden wants Mr. Trump as the nominee because he believes Mr.
Trump is the easiest to beat. But before the die is cast, it’s worth thinking about the risks GOP voters would be taking, both in November and in a second term if by some chance Mr. Trump defeated Mr.
Biden. *** The election risks are sitting in plain sight. Mr.
Trump faces 91 felony charges in four different indictments. You can think the indictments are politically motivated and an awful precedent, as these columns have argued. But they exist, and amid the legal battling a jury could convict Mr.
Trump by the summer. Then what? Mr. Trump would never withdraw.
But no fewer than 31% of Iowa caucus voters said in the entrance poll that a conviction would make Mr. Trump unfit for the White House. That would mean Mr.
Trump can’t win. GOP voters would have played into Democratic and media hands. If Mr.
Trump does somehow win, Democrats predict a second Trump term will end in dictatorship. But that undersells the resilience of American institutions, which have held up so far against the stress test of Mr. Trump and his enemies, including the riot of Jan.
6, 2021. Congress responded quickly and ratified the Electoral College votes. The plotters were a rump group
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