The rise of solar and batteries is upending our renewable future
solar power and electric vehicles this year is smashing the forecasts of the most bullish analysts, giving hope they are on the net-zero path the world needs. If only the same could be said of other forms of clean energy.
Take photovoltaic panels. Solar modules last month hit a record low 16.5 cents per watt, according to BloombergNEF, and will slump further to 14.5 cents by the end of the year.
BloombergNEF has a conservative forecast of 367 gigawatts of solar installed this year — roughly as much as was connected in the seven years through 2017, capable of generating sufficient electricity to power Germany or Brazil. Its optimistic forecast of 563 GW in 2025 would more or less put the industry on track to reduce global emissions to zero by 2050.
The same thing is happening with electric cars and the batteries they use. Sinking costs for battery metals have driven advanced lithium-ion cells in China down to $82.6 per kilowatt-hour, analysts Benchmark Mineral Intelligence wrote last week, within a whisker of levels at which electric vehicles are cheaper than equivalent gasoline and diesel cars.
After a brief truce in a price war between major automakers in China, Tesla Inc. cut local models by nearly $10,000 last month. Some 38% of cars sold there in August came with a plug.At the same time, other technologies equally crucial to the energy transition are struggling.
An auction last week to build new offshore wind farms in the UK, the second-biggest market for the technology, received zero bids. Major developers have warned that rising expenses mean projects won’t be viable unless the government lifts the tariffs it will pay.
The infrastructure needed to support this transformation is suffering, too. Some 1,250 GW of
