Signs of angst are already mounting. A three-month measure of implied volatility for a key Bloomberg dollar gauge is near its highest mark since the March 2023 banking crisis. Equities’ so-called fear gauge is once again on the upswing after surging amid the market tumult of early August. Fixed-income traders are also weathering more turbulence, as mixed economic signals complicate bets on the scope and timing of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
Against this backdrop comes Tuesday’s debate, with the candidates pitted against one another in an extremely tight presidential contest. The match-up does promise a little more clarity for investors who’ve already spent months parsing campaign-trail language around tax proposals, tariff projections, government spending plans and policies on energy, electric vehicles, health care and more.
“This debate could be pivotal to the momentum of both campaigns,” according to Kathleen Brooks, research director at foreign exchange broker XTB. “Although there are political shocks happening all over the world, the biggest risk is still the US election in November.”
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