Trillion dollar question: Will the events of 2024 set off a headwind or tailwind?
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Another year recedes for a new one to begin, laden with our collective hopes and expectations. The end of any time cycle is a good moment for honest reviews and barebone analysis.
The past 12 months have been quite momentous, etching new lines in the sand and conjuring images that inspire both awe and dread. Students of the social sciences—particularly history—will find many similarities with events from almost a century ago, renewing faith in philosopher George Santayana’s famous line that those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it. Unsurprisingly, there is also renewed interest in social-cycle theories of sociology which posit that history and societal phases get repeated in cycles.
Such theories have counterparts even in economics, which are also getting a fresh relook with the help of analytical tools. This rekindled interest seems motivated by the shape of events in 2024, as well as related developments in preceding years. In domestic politics, the two big events of the past 12 months were the Lok Sabha elections and assembly polls in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, Odisha, Jammu and Kashmir, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim.
While India’s general election results saw the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lose its majority in Parliament, forcing its dependence on a coalition to retain power, it secured large victories in Odisha, Maharashtra and Haryana. The final tallies can be interpreted as the electorate signalling some discontent with the BJP’s performance at the centre, but needing its governance at the state level. Globally, 2024 saw the unchallenged rise of right-wing parties and politicians in various national elections, the
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