Trump's election victory is good news for bankers and traders

efinancialcareers.com:

If you work for a US bank and own stock from deferred bonuses past, the re-election of Donald Trump may seem a fine thing. 

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Following news of Trump's victory, the Financial Times notes that Frankfurt-listed shares in Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley rose by between 8 and 9% during early trading in Europe. When Trump was elected in 2016, bank stocks rose 20% in the first three months of his tenure. The day after the 2016 election, JPMorgan and Bank of America eachrose 6%. During his last full term, shares in Goldman Sachs rose by over 20% and shares in JPMorgan were up over 50%.

Writing this week, banking analysts at KBW said a second Trump presidency would be good for the likes of Goldman Sachs and for Lazard because it implies a «risk-on» environment, lower capital requirements and "an environment with lower regulation and an improved environment for mergers and acquisitions." They noted, too, as per the chart below, that every time it seemed that Trump might win during the campaign, finance stocks rose — with brokers and independent M&A boutiquesrising most of all. When it seemed that Harris might win, brokerage stocks fell. 

Trump's presidency should, therefore, be good news for anyone with stock from deferred bonuses to sell. It should also by extension be good news for banking revenues and banking jobs. M&A bankers in particular should benefit from what KBW describes as fewer «regulatory frictions» around large cap M&A coupled with «secular tailwinds supporting a more constructive M&A environment.»  

This will be popular with M&A bankers, who have been struggling in key sectors, as per the chart below. 

However, Trump's election may not be fine for