U.S elections: Trump electorally favored to defeat Kamala Harris in November by the widest margin in months
Nate Silver offered his most recent predictions for the next US presidential election. In accordance with Silver's forecast, Kamala Harris now faces less electoral opposition than previous President Donald Trump. With Silver claiming that Trump's odds of winning have increased to their greatest point since July 30, this represents Trump's strongest position in recent months.
As per the reports of Yahoo news, Silver’s model, which tracks electoral predictions, shows that Trump’s probability of securing the Electoral College rose to 58.2%, compared to 52.4% the week before. Meanwhile, Harris’ chances dropped to 41.6%, down from 47.3%. Silver noted that the contest remains a toss-up, but Trump’s edge has grown.
Impact of state polling on Harris
Silver pointed to Harris’ weaker polling numbers in certain states as a critical factor. While national polls and several swing states still show decent support for Harris, her performance in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan has been concerning. Silver previously warned that Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, could play a decisive role, and Harris seems to be slipping slightly there.
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Michigan, another crucial state with 15 electoral votes, is also presenting challenges. Silver’s model highlighted a decline in Harris’ lead in Michigan, shrinking from +3.1% before the Democratic National Convention (DNC) to +1.9% afterward. This erosion in states like
