US elections 2024: How Kamala Harris secured unexpected lead over Trump in Iowa polls
Kamala Harris has surpassed Republican Donald Trump in a new poll in Iowa, with likely women voters responsible for the turnaround in a state that Trump easily won in 2016 and 2020, according to the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released on Saturday.
The poll of 808 likely voters, who were surveyed Oct. 28-31, has Harris leading Trump 47%-44% in Iowa, which has been trending deeply Republican in recent years. It is within the 3.4 percentage point margin of error, but it marked a turnaround from a September Iowa Poll that had Trump with a 4-point lead, the newspaper reported.
Why Kamala Harris is taking a lead?
«The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris,» the Register said.
Trump won Iowa in his past two presidential campaigns, by more than 9 percentage points in 2016 and 8 points in 2020.
An Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense survey of a similar number of likely voters Nov. 1-2 had a starkly different result, with Trump leading Harris by 10 points. This poll also has a 3.4 percentage point margin of error.
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