What to expect from Powell's speech at Jackson Hole? Nadia Elbilassy answers
«The S&P is still above 5600, has rebounded almost every single thing that it has lost that day. So, I think the more that we get clarity on this type of data, then the more that we are going to see markets factor in more than 100 basis rate cuts by the end of the year,» says Nadia Elbilassy, Sr Market Analyst, Equiti Group.
Now, dovish minutes really coming in from the Fed, decreased risks to inflation, labour markets are also at a better place is a sense that seems to be coming out. So, are the markets then factoring in one cut and what do you really make of the minutes?
Nadia Elbilassy: Yes, markets are pricing in by 60% that we are going to see a 25 basis point rate cut in September and 30% 50 basis point. So, there is still a division, but it is definitely lower than the past few months, especially after the very weak NFP payrolls that we saw.
This comes in on the backdrop of the rally that we saw post the kind of Black Monday that we also saw a couple of weeks back on August the 5th. I think markets are trading in a tight range today, but they are still intact relatively really at high levels.
I mean, the S&P is still above 5600, has rebounded almost every single thing that it has lost that day. So, I think the more that we get clarity on this type of data, then the more that we are going to see markets factor in more than 100 basis rate cuts by the end of the year.
There is a view coming in from economists that there might be a September rate cut, but it really depends on the data given that just a couple
