Even with record low fertility and birth rates, Canada is undergoing a nearly unprecedented population boom — well in excess of three per cent annualized growth. The reason is clear: an unrivalled immigration surge that hit an inflow of almost 1.3 million people from other countries around the world in 2023. Without this, the civilian population would be in decline.
What makes immigration different from natural homegrown population growth is that these new residents start to spend money immediately. They need food, shelter and other basic necessities right away. Babies and infants, meanwhile, need a crib and formula.
The fact that Canadian output and incomes are in decline in real per capita terms attests to the host of other impediments to economic activity that have little to do with the immigration file (chronic lack of competitiveness, receding productivity, the government’s ascent relative to the size of the economy, with the business sector’s gross domestic product share in decline).
But this influx of adults is having an impact on consumer spending patterns, and the question for investors is where to seek out the opportunities.
The focus is on where immigrants spend their money. They are not going to be flying anywhere, eating out or going to the movies — discretionary purchases won’t come until later. The biggest focus will be on getting their footing.
But they do need a roof over their heads. They still need to eat, most likely at home, and they are going to need other basics such as telecom services and utilities. So, the theme here is to focus attention on what immigrants need, not what they want, which comes later when they develop a recurring income stream (note that these are not recommendations, but rather
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