Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk’s obesity moat just got stronger

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Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The obesity duopoly has been pierced as Amgen positions itself to have a drug on the market in a few years. While this adds competition to a market currently controlled by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, it also reinforces the dominance of the makers of Wegovy and Zepbound.

Amgen reported on Tuesday that its highly anticipated obesity-drug candidate, MariTide, helped patients shed around 20% of their body weight, though side effects such as nausea and vomiting were common. The company didn’t disclose detailed data, which is expected at a medical conference next year. If all goes well in a larger late-stage study, Amgen could have a drug on the market within a few years.

But what we already know suggests that Lilly and Novo Nordisk’s market leadership isn’t about to be upended. Not only did MariTide fail to outperform Lilly’s Zepbound, but both Lilly and Novo also have next-generation medications under development, with promising data showing even more impressive weight loss results. “A 20% weight loss would have been best-in-class if it came a few years ago, but at this point, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have drugs in the pipeline that could meet or exceed 25% weight loss," wrote Nicholas Anderson, portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management.

“On top of that, their drugs are completing phase 3 trials imminently, while MariTide just wrapped up phase 2 and will still need to run a large, expensive phase 3 program." Introducing a novel medical approach doesn’t guarantee lasting leadership in the pharma business. Take the statin market as an example: Merck was first to market with Mevacor, launched in 1987. But Pfizer’s Lipitor later overtook it, becoming a blockbuster owing to its