Forget a repeat of last 3 and 5-years’ returns! Even low double digits returns look tough: Nilesh Shah

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak AMC, says the returns we have seen in the last three and five years are unlikely to be repeated over the next three and five years. Last five years’ returns from Jan ‘20 to September ‘24 were about 21% for the broad market and about 30% plus for small and midcap. Those returns are unlikely to be repeated over the next three or five years. The returns could still be in the low double digits, if there is a fair possibility that India continues to deliver and our peers continue to score a self-goal.

In the last couple of weeks, it has been local versus global. Globally, things are okay, locally, things are bad. Do you think this trend of local versus global will continue?
Nilesh Shah: In some sense, local and global are two opposite sides of a coin and in some sense they are on the same side. If stock prices go up, both local and global investors benefit. But the driver for local and global investors could be different. Global investors have a much wider plate to invest into. Local investors, by definition, are constrained to invest in India. Global investors often come down or top down, though many of them have established offices in India.

Local investors, by definition, are more connected to the ground. There will be certain battles which will be fought between local and global. There will be certain battles where local and global investors will be on the same side. Having said that, do we see some amount of selling from foreigners? Yes, it is likely to continue. But will there be equal