New York Federal Reserve, 28.4% of participants said they were looking for work, which is a rise from 19.4% one year ago and the highest percentage since March 2014. That covers both those who are currently unemployed and those who are employed but looking for new opportunities.
Even though some economists are lowering their predictions of a recession, the results of the New York Fed's thrice-annual Survey of Consumer Expectations Labor Market Survey provide more proof that the U.S. economic outlook is becoming worse. Although it is still relatively low at 4.3%, the unemployment rate has increased from its 3.5% post-pandemic low.
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There are growing indications that the U.S. economy is about to enter a much softer phase following a period of post-pandemic growth that was characterized by soaring inflation. According to the new survey, expectations of losing one's job also reached a record: The average expected probability of losing one's job increased to 4.4% from 3.9% a year earlier. This is the highest percentage the survey has ever recorded, dating back to 2014.
Even with those worrying data points, economists believe it is unlikely that we will see a full-blown recession which is typically characterized by two consecutive quarters of negative growth. According to the New York Fed, respondents older than 45, those without college degrees, and those with annual household incomes under $60,000 showed the greatest increase in