How Israel’s spies got blindsided by Hamas but still hit Hezbollah hard
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. A year ago, Israel suffered its worst-ever intelligence failure when Hamas launched a surprise attack, killing 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages. Today, a wave of strikes against Hezbollah has Israel’s long-vaunted spies back on the front foot.
The turnaround reflects how Israel has invested its time and resources over the past two decades. Since fighting a war with Lebanon-based Hezbollah in 2006, Israel has rigorously prepared for another major conflict with the militant group—and potentially with its backer Iran. Hamas, by contrast, was viewed as a far less potent threat.
Even shortly before the Oct. 7 incursion from the Gaza Strip, top officials were dismissing signs of an impending attack. Last September, the Israeli military confidently characterized Gaza as being in a state of “stable instability," and intelligence assessments concluded that Hamas had shifted its focus to stoking violence in the West Bank and wanted to limit the risk of direct Israeli retaliation.
“Much of our focus was on preparing for the confrontation with Hezbollah," said Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and expert on the Lebanese militia. “We somewhat neglected the southern arena and the evolving situation with Hamas in Gaza." A series of Israeli attacks in Lebanon over the past two weeks have left Hezbollah reeling—shocked by Israel’s abilities to penetrate the group and struggling to close the gaps. Thousands of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies exploded virtually simultaneously on consecutive days last week, killing 37 and injuring around 3,000.
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