India 2024 wheat output at 106 million tonnes to fall short of govt estimate: Survey

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declining central pool stocks of essential food grains. The past two years have seen India's wheat production hit by severe heatwaves, leading to reduced domestic supplies and increased prices. Consequently, the government has had to release stocks from the central pool to stabilize prices.

As of last month, wheat inventories held by the Food Corp of India (FCI), which maintains the government's granaries, had dropped to 7.71 million tonnes. The last time wheat stocks were below this level was in 2008 when it had dipped to 5.8 million tonnes. Meanwhile, India's retail inflation marginally decreased to 5.09% in February from 5.1% in January — still above the central bank's 4% target.

The period saw food and beverage prices surge above 7% for the fourth consecutive month. According to data from the department of consumer affairs, all-India average wheat flour, or atta, prices in the retail market on Monday were at ₹35.9 per kg, up 3.7% year-on-year. The expected rise in wheat production this year is attributed to higher acreage and improved yields in key states like Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh, though Gujarat and Rajasthan might see a decrease in output.

Uttar Pradesh, contributing 30% to India's total wheat production, is expected to see a 4.7% increase in output to 32.25 million tonnes this year. Similarly, output in Punjab, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh is seen rising 3.5%, 4.1% and 1.8%, respectively, from last year. Output in Gujarat and Rajasthan is likely to fall 5.8% and 3.3% to 3.1 million tonnes and 8.85 million tonnes, respectively, according to the crop survey report.