Kamala Harris trailing Joe Biden, Bill Clinton at this point in campaigns, says strategists
Joe Biden led Donald Trump by 7.1 percent on this day in 2020 according to the Real Clear Politics average. The election came down to a small number of votes in a small number of states, and at this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton was ahead by 6.3 per cent.
As of right now, Harris leads Trump by 1.5 per cent in the Real Clear Politics average and 3.5 per cent in the FiveThirtyEight.com average. Thus, while she leads in both averages, she is far behind in terms of the numbers that both Biden and Clinton had. Biden prevailed by 42,000 votes in three states, while Clinton was defeated. Karl Rove pointed out that while these were national averages, swing state polling averages might be more important.
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Following Biden's withdrawal from the race last month, Harris announced her candidacy for president and has since surged in the polls. In many national polls, she has closed the difference with Trump and is now leading by a narrow margin in some of them.
Based on a total of 140 polls, the Hill/Decision Desk HQ national polling average puts Harris ahead of Trump by 4 points. Before his withdrawal from the race on July 21, Biden had a 44 per cent chance of winning; this is now down to a 55 per cent chance for Harris to defeat Trump in November, according to their most recent election forecast.
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