Republican Donald Trump has fallen behind Democrat Kamala Harris, 48%–43%. The results show an eight-point shift in the presidential contest from late June when Trump had an almost four-point lead over President Joe Biden in the poll. Significant changes in some important demographic groups that have historically been critical for Democrats, such as young people and Hispanic and Black voters, contributed to the vice president's slim lead. The largest shift has been that, among those earning less than $20,000 annually, a three-point lead for Trump over Biden in June has grown to a 23-point lead for Harris over Trump in August.
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This year, Harris has managed to lead Trump, something that Biden was never able to do. The poll was conducted following the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which boosted party morale, and her advantage is within the survey's margin of error. But for the time being, at least, the results show that Harris is gaining ground as the race for the general election gets ready to heat up.
According to David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, young people, persons of colour, and low-income households have swung dramatically toward the vice president with the winding down of the 'Brat Summer' of Kamala Harris emojis. These same demographics were emphasized and woven together by numerous speakers at the convention.